Tariff Uncertainty
If you’re struggling to keep up with the latest in US tariff announcements, you’re not alone! The Budget Lab at Yale University has put out a chart showing the dramatic shifts in US tariff policy since Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. They point out that these dramatic shifts have increased economic policy uncertainty for businesses operating in the United States.
In Canada, tariff uncertainty has led to a big change in trading patterns with the United States. Since January 2025, Canadian exports of goods to the United States have fallen by 26.2%, and imports from the United States have fallen by 11%. Duties paid on imports to Canada rose by $546 million in the first three months of 2025, likely due largely to retaliatory tariffs that Canada imposed against the United States.
Timeline of Major Tariff changes affecting Canada:
Feb 1: Trump signs executive order imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the National Emergencies Act. The administration links these tariffs to the fentanyl crisis in the US.
Feb 3: Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are paused for one month.
Feb 10: China imposes retaliatory tariffs on the United States.
March 4: The 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico takes effect, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.
March 5: Automakers in Canada and Mexico are granted a one-month reprieve from tariffs.
March 6: Goods produced primarily in Canada, Mexico, and the US are exempted from the tariffs introduced on March 4th, because they fall under CUSMA rules of origin.
March 12: Global steel and aluminum tariffs of 25% take effect. Canada and the EU introduce retaliatory tariffs.
March 20: China implements tariffs of 100% on Canadian canola, peas, and some animal feeds, and 25% on Canadian aquatic products and pork, in response to Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum introduced in 2024.
April 2: Trump announces global tariffs of at least 10%, to come into effect on April 9. For Canada and Mexico these tariffs are not additional to the tariffs announced on February 1st, but would be applied if the February 1st order were suspended. He also removed an exemption that had allowed shipments of goods under $800 USD to bypass tariffs.
April 3: US tariffs of 25% on final assembly cars and light trucks from Canada and Mexico come into effect. Components produced within North America are exempt from the tariff.
April 8: An additional 50% tariff on goods from China comes into effect.
April 9: China increases tariffs on US goods to 84%. Trump increases tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, and lowers the rate of the global tariffs announced on April 2nd to 10% for a period of 90 days.
April 10: Trump clarifies that tariffs on Chinese goods total 145%, because the new tariffs are on top of previous fentanyl related tariffs.
April 11: China increases retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125%. Trump exempts cell phones and other tech products from most of the tariffs on China, leaving only a 20% import tariffs on these goods.
May 3: US tariffs of 25% on auto parts come into effect. This will only be applied to the components that originate outside of North America. The administration also clarifies that steel and aluminum tariffs do not stack on top of auto tariffs – manufacturers must pay whichever tariff is higher, and apply for an exemption from the other relevant tariff.
May 12: US and China agree to lower tariffs for 90 days. The US rate on goods from China falls from 145% to 30%, and the Chinese rate on US imports falls from 125% to 10%.
May 28: U.S. Court of International Trade rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the President the power to impose sweeping import taxes. This pauses the 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, as well as the global tariffs announced on April 2.
May 29: The Court of International Trade ruling is appealed by the White House, and the appeals court allows tariffs to be collected while the appeal is in process.
June 4: The US increases its global tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%.