Get the latest updates on economic growth, jobs, wages, inflation and interest rates, all in one place.
Economic growth
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 2% in the first half of 2024, but slowed to 1.5% in the third quarter. Population growth has contributed to overall increases in GDP, but per-person GDP is declining. The same trend can be seen in consumption growth — overall consumption has increased, but per-person consumption has fallen. The Bank of Canada currently forecasts that Canadian economic growth will be slightly above 2% in 2025 and 2026.
Jobs
Canada’s unemployment rate has increased from 5.3% in October 2023 to 5.9% in October 2024. The average unemployment rate for workers aged 15-24 increased from 11.4% in October 2023 to 12.8% in October 2024. For First Nations youth aged 15 to 24, the unemployment rate rose 5.6 percentage points compared to a year ago, and is now at 22%.
Canada’s labour force participation rate continues to fall. In October it was at 64.8%, the lowest it’s been since December 1997. This is the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed or looking for work, and it’s changing mostly because Canada’s population is aging.
Wages
Statistics Canada uses two sources to estimate wages each month: the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours (SEPH). The LFS information comes from individuals filling out a survey, with results available the following month. The SEPH gets its data from a census of business payrolls. The SEPH data takes longer to process, so the information lags by two months. The two surveys often differ slightly, but usually show the same long-term trends. In August 2024, the LFS found average wages increased by 5% and the SEPH found average wages increased by 4.7% compared to a year earlier.
Inflation
The consumer price index (CPI), which measures changes in the cost of goods and services, was 1.6% higher in September compared to the previous year. This increase is smaller than the 2% rise we saw in August, mostly because of falling gasoline prices. Prices for rent increased faster than overall inflation — on average rents were 8.2% higher than in September last year. The Bank of Canada expects the CPI increases to stabilize within its 1% to 3% target window.
Interest rates
The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 1.25 percentage points since June 2024, and their policy rate is now at 3.75%. With the unemployment rate increasing and CPI increases now below 2%, the Bank has indicated that further cuts are likely to come, but the timing is uncertain. The next interest rate announcements are scheduled for December 11, 2024 and January 29, 2025.