Latest economic trends at a glance

Economic growth

Expectations of economic growth had improved with higher oil prices, but have been dampened by the Alberta wildfires. GDP is now expected to grow by 1.6 per cent this year and by 2.1 per cent in 2017.


With employment growing slower than the labour force, the national jobless rate is expected to rise to an average of 7.3 per cent this year and then decline slightly to 7.1 per cent in 2017. 


Overall consumer price inflation is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent this year and by about 2.2 per cent in 2017. 


Average wage increases in major collective agreements settled in the first quarter of 2016 increased to 1.4 per cent from an average of 1.2 per cent in 2015. This is a positive direction, but still not above inflation. 


If the economy continues to strengthen and the core rate of inflation rises, we can expect the Bank of Canada to increase its key lending rate towards the end of next year, but longer-term lending rates and mortgages will
edge up sooner.